【競馬予想】11R 2020/1/18(土) 1回小倉1日目 愛知杯 (GⅢ) オープン (国) 牝 (特) ハンデ 芝2000m

みなさんこんにちは。こんばんは。おはようございます。

🐻です。

今回は、2020/01/18(土)に行われる愛知杯の予想をしていく。

YouTubeには予想動画が大量にうpされていたのだが、netkeiba.comを見て自分の考えを表明するものが多かった。

個人的には競馬の予想はお金に関係なく、出来るだけ純粋にレース予想をしているものが好きなので、喧しくないユーチューバーさんの動画を参考にした。

愛知杯の馬柱

馬柱は例によってnetkeiba.comさんのものと競馬ラボさんのものをお借りした。
現時点(2020/01/16)では枠と馬番が決まっていないようだ。

愛知杯の特別登録馬情報【2020年1月18日小倉11R】 | 競馬ラボ
愛知杯特別登録馬一覧です。
愛知杯(G3) 出馬表 | 2020年1月18日 小倉11R レース情報(JRA) - netkeiba.com
2020年1月18日 小倉11R 愛知杯(G3)の出馬表です。JRA開催レースの出馬表や最新オッズ、レース結果速報、払戻情報をはじめ、競馬予想やデータ分析など予想に役立つ情報も満載です。

そして、今回の愛知杯は2011年以来の小倉開催になるようだ。

 

夢色グラス 競馬チャンネルさんの予想

ホープフルステークスの記事の時にも書いたが、夢色グラス競馬チャンネルさんの予想は大まかに馬を3グループに分けられていた。Aグループに有力馬、Bグループに普通馬、Cグループに大穴馬という感じ(?)に仕分けされていたようだ。
しかしあくまで、追い切りを見ての評価らしいので、パドックでの様子や冬毛、発汗状態等も考慮した方がいいそうだ。

Aグループ

サヴォワールエメ

サラキア

センテリュオ

デンコウアンジュ

Bグループ

ウインラナキラ

カレンシリエージョ

フェアリーポルカ

レッドランディーニ

(地)レイホーロマンス

Cグループ

パッシングスルー

netkeibaTVさんの予想


netkeibaTVさんは、パッシングスルーの1頭推しだった。

netkeibaTVと言うからには、結構厳密な予想をするのかと思ってみていたが、追い切り情報を紹介するに止まっていた。

きょーこ 競馬シミュさんの予想

きょーこ競馬シミュさんはゲーム(?)で4回シミュレーションされていた。

シミュレーション結果は以下のようになっていた。

<1回目>

1着 センテリュオ

2着 モルフェオルフェ

3着 ウインラナキア

4着 フェアリーポルカ

5着 サラキア

<2回目>

1着 サラキア

2着 パッシングスルー

3着 アロハリリー

4着 モルフェオルフェ

5着 ランドネ

<3回目>

1着 パッシングスルー

2着 フェアリーポルカ

3着 アロハリリー

4着 モルフェオルフェ

5着 サラキア

<4回目>

1着 フェアリーポルカ

2着 パッシングスルー

3着 センテリュオ

4着 レッドランディーニ

5着 モルフェオルフェ

このシミュレーションにおいては、モルフェオルフェが何度も5着以内に入っているのが特徴かもしれない。

モルフェオルフェは直近5走以内で重賞を走っていない。

モルフェオルフェ - Morphe Orfe - 競走馬データベース | 競馬ラボ
モルフェオルフェ(2015年03月27日生まれ、牝馬、父オルフェーヴル、母スマッシュ)競走成績、馬主、調教師、血統といった基本データはもちろん、競馬場・距離・馬場状態・枠順別の成績、次走情報など予想に使えるデータを無料で公開中!

名前からも分かるように、モルフェオルフェはオルフェーヴル産駒の馬だ。

競馬ゲームをやっていると、血統に影響されることが多い。

ゲーム上では、オルフェーヴル産駒ということで、かなり強めに設定されているのかもしれない。


以上を踏まえて自分の予想

さて、自分の予想だが、センテリュオ、サラキア、デンコウアンジュ、パッシングスルーが有力で、大穴にモルフェオルフェが来るのではという予想をたてた。

夢色グラス競馬チャンネルさんは、サヴォワールエメも有力馬に挙げられていたが、ダイワメジャー産駒ということで2000mは長すぎるのではないかと考えたからだ。

幾ら小倉競馬場で開催されるレースとはいえ、距離は2000mだ。

3連単や3連複を予想できるほどの玄人でもないので、

ワイドで

センテリュオ-サラキア

センテリュオ-デンコウアンジュ

センテリュオ-パッシッングスルー

サラキア-フェアリーポルカ

副賞にモルフェオルフェと予想しておこうと思う。

敢えて記号を振っておくと、

◎センテリュオ-○サラキア-▲デンコウアンジュ-△パッシングスルー-△デンコウアンジュ-×モルフェオルフェ

という感じだ。


 

サラキアとセンテリュオの比較でセンテリュオを優勢に予想したのは、ジョッキーの差分が理由だ。

シンザン記念で川田さんに裏切られた感があるので、今回の重賞はルメールを応援しておこうと思う。

↑(霞 券五郎ちゃんねるさん)の動画にカワタでおわたとコメントしたのが記憶に新しい。

川田さんは佐賀県出身ということで、小倉競馬場でのレースは九州凱旋になるかなとも思った。

んが、しかし、やはりここは感情的になった先週の自分への自戒を込めて川田さんには大レースで期待しないことにした。

まとめ

競馬予想ブログは2回目になるのだが、実際に記事にしてみると、「あーでもない、こーでもない」と悩んでしまった。

ただ、なんでもそうでだが、悩んでいる間が一番楽しい。

昨年末から競馬をじっくり見るようになってしまったが、身を滅ぼさないようにはしていきたい。

東進ハイスクールの林修さんも競馬で1800万の借金を背負ったらしいので背筋が凍った。。。

林修氏が過去に1800万円の借金を抱えていたと告白「ギャンブラーです」 (2016年8月24日掲載) - ライブドアニュース
林修氏が24日の番組で、過去に1800万円の借金を抱えていたと明かした。会社を起業するも失敗し、競馬や投資でも最終的に損失が膨れ上がったという。借金返済のために仕方なく選んだのが予備校講師だったそう

何れにせよ馬券を買うにしても100円馬券で十分だ。

行政に手数料を中抜きされるのも癪に障る。

またいつものように、予想が当たろうと外れようと、楽しめればいいかなぁと思う。

それでは。🐻でした。

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